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Opposition forces seeking to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched their biggest offensive in years last week. recapturing the northern city of Aleppo and expel government forces from the region.
It was the first significant development in years in Syria’s civil war, which after nearly 14 years had largely dropped from the world’s headlines. It also raises new questions about the opposing sides, who supports them and what might happen next. Here’s what we know:
What happened in Aleppo?
Syrian rebels launched a two-pronged offensive in Aleppo last week, seizing control of the country’s second-largest city amid little resistance from government troops, residents and fighters said.
The insurgents are a Turkish-backed coalition of mainstream secular groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the United Nations.
Since then, the rebels have advanced south and southwest of Aleppo, capturing territory in Hama province and moving into the countryside around Idlib.
LOOK | Syrian rebels advance:
Russian and Syrian warplanes struck the rebel-held northern Syrian city of Idlib on Sunday, military sources said, as President Bashar al-Assad vowed to crush insurgents who had overrun the city of Aleppo.
Which rebel groups are involved?
HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, was al-Qaeda’s official wing in the Syrian war, but the groups severed ties in 2016.
Another rebel group – the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, the internationally recognized Syrian opposition – launched a separate offensive from northern Idlib. It represents anti-Assad groups such as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army or the Free Syrian Army.
why now
The assault followed the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which ended more than a year of fighting that began shortly after Israel went to war with Hamas in Gaza.
Hadi al-Bahra, chairman of the National Coalition, says the rebels began preparing to seize Aleppo a year ago, but were delayed by the war between Israel and Hamas.
“The moment there was a ceasefire in Lebanon, they found this opportunity … to start,” he said.
Earlier this year, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo hit both Hezbollah and Syrian government weapons depots. forces, among other goals, according to an independent monitoring group. Israel rarely acknowledges attacks on Aleppo or other government-held areas of Syria.
Iran, which, like Hezbollah, supports the regime, has also been weakened by recent Israeli airstrikes.
Meanwhile, Russia, Assad’s main international backer, is worried about his war in Ukraine.
LOOK | Russian airstrike leaves at least 12 dead:
A Russian airstrike on Aleppo University Hospital in Syria killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 20 others. The bombing, in support of Syrian government forces, followed after insurgents took control of Aleppo, the country’s largest city.
Why Aleppo is important
Aleppo, a former center of trade and culture in the Middle East, was home to 2.3 million people before the war. Rebels seized the eastern side of the beleaguered city in 2012, and it became the proudest symbol of the advance of armed opposition factions, but it changed hands again when a brutal air campaign by Russia helped al-Assad retake the city.
Intervention by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and other groups did much to keep Assad in power, who now has 70 percent of Syria under his control. The rest is held by a range of opposition forces and foreign troops.
This latest shift “has the potential to be really quite, quite consequential and potentially game-changing,” if Syrian government forces can’t hold their ground, said Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst at the ‘Middle East Institute of the United States.
Which countries participate?
Syria is divided into three regions: each is controlled by the Assad regime, opposition forces or the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led coalition of US-backed ethnic militias and rebel groups opposed by Turkey.
Russia and Iran have dominated government-controlled areas, the largest part of Syria. The US has forces in the northeast and east, supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has troops in the rebel-held northwest.
LOOK | The Syrian army is redeploying:
The Syrian army said on Saturday that dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack by rebels that swept through the city of Aleppo, forcing the army to deploy in the biggest challenge to to President Bashar al-Assad in years.
Hezbollah, the regime’s third-largest supporter, currently has no intention of sending fighters to northern Syria to support Assad, according to sources who spoke to Reuters.
Turkish forces have done it previously attacked northeastern Syria, seeking to eliminate one of its main concerns on its borders: Kurdish-led groups.
Iran has pledged to help the Syrian government and on Monday hundreds of fighters from Tehran-backed Iraqi militias crossed into Syria to help fight the rebels, Syrian and Iraqi sources said.
what happens now
The Syrian government has rebuilt its forces to push back the offensive, with the help of Russia. Both the government and Russia have been adding reinforcements and attacking rebel-held areas as they try to stem the opposition’s momentum.
Airstrikes hit Idlib in northwestern Syria on Monday, killing at least a dozen civilians, including children, according to the White Helmets, a volunteer rescue group also known as the Syrian Civil Defense.
At least 44 civilians, including 12 children and seven women, were killed in northwestern Syria from Tuesday to Saturday, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
OCHA added that more than 48,500 people had been displaced, with key infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and water stations, damaged in the escalation of hostilities.
The United Nations has described the situation in Aleppo as “volatile and unpredictable”.
“The latest developments pose serious risks to civilians and have serious implications for regional and international peace and security,” UN Syria envoy Geir O. Pedersen said in a statement.
