The Bank of Japan was expected to keep rates on hold this week, according to a CNBC poll

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this week pending greater clarity on domestic spending and wage trends, as well as changes in monetary policy. the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, according to a poll. of economists polled by CNBC.

A narrow majority of 13 of 24 economists, or 54%, said the BOJ would likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. The same number of economists expect the Japanese central bank to raise rates in January. The survey was conducted between December 9 and 13.

The BOJ, which last raised rates in July, has signaled it is ready to tighten further if wage and price growth align with its projections. In a recent media interview, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested another rate hike is “getting closer in the sense that the economic data is on track,” but also pointed to risks, including wage trends next year and possible changes in US economic policy.

Japanese interest rates are the lowest among developed countries because of the BOJ’s long-standing policy of supporting the country’s moribund economy. The policy has kept the yen weak against most major currencies, boosting exports and tourism and spurring the so-called “carry trade” when investors borrow yen to bet on higher-yielding assets. These trends could reverse as Japanese interest rates rise while central banks elsewhere begin to cut rates.

Many economists told CNBC they believe the recent data indicate the Japanese economy is well on track to meet the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target, driven by wage growth. However, they noted that the BOJ may prefer to wait another month to assess the dynamics of wage-driven inflation, focusing on the impetus from next year’s spring wage negotiations and trade and tariff policies from Trump

The BOJ has yet to gain confidence in its outlook, according to Goldman Sachs Japan’s Akira Otani. He pointed out that the central bank lacks clarity on whether small and medium-sized businesses can sustain wage increases, a risk the BOJ has identified as crucial to achieving its inflation target. Japanese unions typically negotiate wage increases in the first three months of the calendar year ahead of the fiscal year that begins in April.

The view that the central bank is likely to keep rates on hold this week also gained traction after recent media reports suggested policymakers wanted more time to monitor overseas risks and gather additional clues about Japan’s wage outlook.

“Confused communications from the BOJ” now suggest a likely outcome that the central bank will leave rates unchanged pending additional information from spring wage negotiations and US policy developments, said Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan’s economy in Oxford Economics, in a note last week.

Regular wages in Japan have been growing annually at a rate of 2.5% to 3%, and inflation has remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for 30 consecutive months. While the authorities are willing to normalize monetary policy, they are also wary of raising rates too quickly after more than two decades of deflation. In fact, Japanese household spending has declined for three straight months since October, while factory output has been volatile.

Teppei Ino, head of Tokyo Global Markets Research at MUFG Bank, also highlighted changing market expectations due to media reports. Overnight swap markets have significantly reduced bets on a December rate hike, assigning a 77% chance of no change as of Monday morning, well above the 35% chance of holding the price at the end of November.

“Judging by the (media) reports so far, it looks like the likelihood of postponing a rate hike has increased,” Ino told CNBC on Friday.

“However, given the current trend of yen depreciation and the upcoming FOMC meeting just before the BOJ meeting, we should note that there is still the possibility of an abrupt decision to raise rates if USD/JPY reaches levels like 155,” Ino. he said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for this week.

The yen was trading around 154 to the dollar on Monday morning.

To be sure, some economists still expect the BOJ to tighten policy this week.

Nomura expects the BOJ to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, citing that fundamentals such as the economy and prices are on track. However, he also acknowledged that a hike could be delayed due to uncertainties surrounding US policy.

“We believe the BOJ could also decide to postpone any rate hike if it decides to place more emphasis on uncertainties, including US political conduct and market trends (in particular in the foreign exchange market) during the Christmas season, when markets they tend to be calm,” research analyst Kyohei Morita said in a Dec. 11 note.

The brokerage also pointed to uncertainty about the government’s fiscal support for households as a potential factor that could cause the BOJ to maintain its rate hike. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose government lacks a parliamentary majority, is currently in negotiations with opposition parties over the size of a proposed increase in the minimum annual taxable income threshold.