China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November

China’s manufacturing activity continued to expand among smaller manufacturers in November, indicating that the country’s recent stimulus efforts have already helped lift certain sectors of its struggling economy, a report said. private survey published on Monday.

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5, beating the average estimate of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. This also marks the second month in a row that the official reading has remained above the key 50 level, which separates growth from contraction.

“The central part of the latest advance in manufacturing sector conditions was the increased inflow of new businesses,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Chinese manufacturers saw new incoming orders rise at the fastest pace in more than three years, the private survey noted. “A renewed increase in export orders also supported the increase in overall new orders,” Wang said.

This private indicator comes next official PMI datareleased on Saturday, also indicated that manufacturing activity in the country expanded to 50.3 in November from 50.1 in the previous month. The reading beat Reuters expectations of 50.2.

The Caixin survey tends to include more small and medium-sized enterprises and private sector companies, compared to the official PMI survey which typically surveys large and state-owned enterprises.

“The increase is an early sign of stabilization in China’s manufacturing sector supported by hopes of stimulus,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. However, Ng stressed that it is still important to assess the real estate improvement and the size of fiscal spending in the coming months.

“Better consumer and business sentiment will be needed for a more sustained rebound,” Ng told CNBC. “With fierce domestic competition and external geopolitical headwinds, price wars and tariffs may still be risks in 2025.”

China’s economy has shown some early signs of recovery following a raft of stimulus measures introduced since late September. The second largest economy in the world reported strong October retail sales growthwhich exceeded Reuters’ expectations.

However, investment in properties in the January-October period fell by 10.3% compared to a year agoand also the industrial benefits of the country was down 10% in October compared to a year earliermarking the third consecutive month of declining profits.

During a Politburo meeting in September, the country’s top leaders stepped up efforts to boost growth by pledging to increase fiscal spending and stabilize the struggling real estate sector. The People’s Bank of China had cut the required reserve ratio, or RRR, by 50 basis points to boost liquidity in the economy by reducing the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve.

At the beginning of November, China also presented a five-year plan worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to address local government debt problems, indicating that additional financial support will be provided next year.

However, Donald Trump’s presidential victory in 2024 has raised concerns about increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which could affects its export sector.

“Ironically, the threat of U.S. tariffs may be boosting Chinese export orders in the short term, because U.S. companies are now rushing to get their orders in before those tariffs take effect,” he said. Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China. economics at Capital Economics.

“I think that’s also driving the export sector, which is why we’re getting these stronger manufacturing PMIs,” Prichard added.