An uncertain future requires uncertain forecasting skills

We are living in an age of uncertainty. Not only are societies facing unprecedented insecurity, but none of us know what to expect is the first class. Don’t make predictions. In other words, don’t just guess what will happen. accept uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity.

Think fast and slow uncertainty

Uncertainty is a “conscious awareness of ignorance.” It is a personal relationship with what we do not know; we may be unaware of what is happening now or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two broad ways of thinking: using our quick, unconscious, gut reactions or moving through the problem slowly and deliberately. when we’re driving a car or choosing a movie to watch But for big decisions, it’s better to just take your time.

A vision of a possible future

The first step in thinking slowly about the future is to imagine how things might play out. Organizations can create scenarios that reflect optimistic and pessimistic outcomes and can use “red teamdeliberately thinking about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense even employs science fiction writers to inject some serious imagination into possible futures.

Individually, you can adopt a “red team mentality,” where you consciously criticize our standard view, whether you’re the type who tends to look on the bright side or expect the worst.

The problem with just using words to describe uncertainty

Vague talk is easily misinterpreted. It’s easy to say that something “may” or “may” happen. But what do these words really mean in 1961? The CIA was planning the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to overthrow Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff saw only a 30 percent chance of success, or failure. 70 percent.

This was reported as a “fair” chance, which they thought would be interpreted as “not so good.” But President Kennedy read the word optimistically and approved the invasion, which was a complete fiasco and pushed Cuba further under Soviet influence.

Putting numbers on our ignorance

Events such as the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to match words with rough numbers.For example, if someone is Britain’s intelligence agency claims the event is “likelyThis has a formal interpretation of between 55 and 75 percent probability.A similar scale is used in climate science where a “very likely” event means 90 percent to 95 percent.

As individuals, we can try to rank possible futures according to their probabilities, then give them some rough magnitudes, saying that getting a particular job is “2 out of 10.” With some imagination, we could think of all our possible future trajectories , which come out like spaghetti. and in about 20 percent of those, you’ll get the job.

What is a good predictor?

“Superforecasters” can estimate good probabilities for the future, where “good” means (a) they are “calibrated” so that when they say “70 percent chance,” these events occur about 70 percent of the time; and (b) they are “discriminating” so that what happens is given a high probability. They are usually open to new knowledge and happy to work in a team, aware of their own thinking and all their biases have the humility to accept uncertainty, accept mistakes, and change their minds Isaiah Berlin so-called “foxes” who are ready to adapt to new evidence rather than “hedgehogs” are stuck in a single mindset.

Recognition of the unknown

Donald Rumsfeld immortalized the “known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns”—things beyond our imagination and not even thought of possible futures, even with a red team mentality. However, Rumsfeld did not include the “known unknowns” that we make without even thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions, and they are why we need critical friends to help us get out of our fixed tram lines.

Be prepared to be surprised

In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was encamped outside Edinburgh and he was trying to persuade the Scottish Kirk to withdraw their support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote: I beseech you, in the depths of Christ, consider it possible that you may be mistaken.” This appeal was ignored, and Cromwell defeated the Scots at the battle of Dunbar.

“Cromwell’s Rule” means you have to think like a fox and always have the humility to admit that you can be wrong.

The role of luck

Things can turn out well for you, or they can turn out badly, mainly due to factors beyond your control, i.e. luck. Philosophers have identified three main types: Good luck. who you were born, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your built-in qualities, and your early upbringing. you have to make the best of the hand you’re dealt at birth. Circumstantial luck: being in the right place at the wrong time. how everything happened to you in that instant.

But everything is not out of your control. “successful” people seize opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient when things go wrong.

Living with uncertainty

Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we’re going to get for Christmas, what the score of a recorded football game will be, or even if we’re going to die. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we can react to that awareness of not knowing in different ways: we can feel anxiety or excitement, hope or fear, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance for not knowing.

We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little slow thinking, we can accept it, be humbled by it, and even enjoy it.