Changes in the Middle East

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this week’s newsletter.

Hours after rejecting a US-led proposal to establish a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was changing the power transition in the region for years to come. Israel’s prime minister had recently ordered the death of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, signaling that Israel has stopped looking to the Gaza Strip to increase attacks on Lebanese militants. As the year draws to a close, events in the Middle East have undoubtedly turned in favor of Israel.

The Israeli army’s relentless attacks on Hizbollah forced it to sign a cease-fire agreement that has given Israel the freedom to continue fighting in Lebanon. Iran looks the most vulnerable in years. His “coalition of resistance” to Iran-backed terrorists, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks like a paper tiger. Israeli airstrikes destroyed most of the Islamic Republic’s defenses in October – the biggest attack on Iran in decades.

The Islamic State suffered another blow this month when Syrian rebels overthrew Bashar al-Assad, the dictator they supported during the Syrian civil war. About 4,000 Iranians were expelled from the country as Iran lost its most critical ally in the Middle East and a vital link to supply Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have played a direct role in Assad’s dramatic death, but its push for Iran’s goals in Syria, as well Hezbollahwhich also helped to strengthen the regime, paved the way for the rebels to go to Damascus.

Since the failure of intelligence Hamas dangerous October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people and 250 were taken captive, the level of control of the Israeli army over its enemies has improved. Netanyahu’s political fortunes have increased. Prior to Hamas beaten, many predict the end of his reign in Israeli politics. However, he appears as stable as ever, his right-wing alliance strengthened and the addition of another party, before his poll numbers rebounded on October 7.

Yet Israel’s military success has come at a heavy price that will only increase in the coming years. No one should mourn the end of the Assad regime, or the weakening of the malign influence of Iran and its proxies. But the success of Israel’s war will be forever tarnished by the untold suffering it has brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel is facing increasing accusations of violence in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, detailed reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and among Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has been opposing. Not only the terrible number of deaths – more than 45,000, according to the Palestinian authorities – fuel such crimes, but also the Israeli siege of Gaza 2.3mn-strong; restrictions on treatment and water; and the destruction of civilian infrastructure that has rendered the area uninhabitable.

In issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he was guilty of the “war crime of starvation as a means of warfare . . . and other inhuman practices”. Israel’s war and siege is a disgrace not only to Israel but also to the US, which has allowed Netanyahu to act with impunity.

After destroying the Hamas army and terrorizing Israeli settlements, Netanyahu has no reason to end the conflict and agree to a deal to free those who remain. But he and his right-wing allies instead seem intent on seizing more territory in different places and keeping Israel in perpetual conflict. In the end, Israel’s security can be guaranteed by peace, and it has never had the power to achieve this – if Netanyahu could see it.